Diskuze s generálem Štěpánkem na téma Blízký východ a vyhodnocení rizikových situací

Diskuze s generálem Štěpánkem (bývalý ředitel Vojenské zpravodajské služby) na téma Blízký východ a vyhodnocení rizikových situací na Diplomatické akademii v Praze.

Právě díky A-reportu z roku 2013 od generála Štěpánka padla vláda bývalého premiéra Nečase. V České republice jsou celkem tři odvětví zpravodajských služeb a to Bezpečností informační služba České republiky, Úřad pro zahraniční styky a informace a Vojenské zpravodajství. První a druhé odvětví se řídí svým zákonem než třetí.

,,kdo nemá informace, nemá nic”

Mezi nejstarší řemesla patří prostituce a špionáž. Všechny zpravodajské informace jdou k ministrovi a ten rozhodne jaké další kroky budou následovat. Jedenkrát za rok musí zpravodajci podávat informace k ministrům České republiky, například bezpečnostní informační služba České republiky se hlásí k ministrovi vnitra. Severoatlantická aliance nemá žádnou zpravodajskou službu.

Mezi bezpečností řízení patří tzv. prověrka, kterou by měl mít každý ministr a politik. Jedná se o prověrku, která si dotyčnou osobu kompletně ověří, jak z trestního rejstříku, tak bankovní účty. Pokud rozvědka a policie pak prohlásí toho daného člověka za spolehlivého může pokračovat v dané úloze pro kterou prověrku potřeboval. Perfektní na tom je to, že prověrka se opakuje co 6 roky a představte si, kdyby prověrku měli například ministři a po 6 letech se je zeptali: ,,… při vašem platu jste sehnal dva mercedesy jak?”. Pak by tento člověk byl označen za nespolehlivého a následně vyloučen a jeho kariéra u konce.

Pokud je svolána rada bezpečnosti státu, tak jedině kvůli jednomu ze čtyř následujících stupňů, ale nikdy nesvolávat bezpečnost státu při re-organizaci policie, pak se jedná o velikou chybu.

1. stupeň krizový – ekologické havárie – rozhoduje vláda

2. stupeň nouzový – živelné pohromy – jak 1. stupeň, ale na území celé České republiky

3. stupeň ohrožení – svrchovanost státu, rozhoduje poslanecká sněmovna, začne/ukončí parlament

4. stupeň válečný – je-li Česká republika napadená a je-li napadený spojenec v NATO nebo v EU – vyhlašuje parlament

Při krizových stupních může dojít k ohrožení snížení práv svobod.

Problémy jsou následovné: chybí dostatečné informace pro občany – 1x za měsíc je cvičení sirén, ale ví občané České republiky jak se zachovat při jednom z těchto stupňů? Dalším je příprava obyvatelstva k civilní ochraně a nevíme jak přesně se zachovat.

Bezpečnostní rady státu se účastní:

I. předsedové: vlády a bezpečnostní informační služby České republiky a ředitel národního bezpečnostního úřadu. II. 1. místopředseda vlády pro ekonomiku a ministr financí (který má celní zprávu). III. ministři a místopředseda pro vědu a výzkum. Finální názor musí dosáhnout consensu – to znamená, že všichni musí souhlasit. Závěrečná zpráva je pak tabulka největších rizik a to se předloží politikům ti dále rozhodují podle zájmu občanů, kteří je zvolili a proto kolikrát realizace neodpovídá návrhu expertů.

Hrozba (je předpoklad) X Riziko (skutečnost)

„víme že ledovce se můžou tavit – ledovce se už taví“

„že zbraně mohou být nelegálně použity – že už jsou nelegálně zneužity“

Hrozba je tedy objektivní charakter a působí nezávisle a riziko je vždy jevem subjektivního charakteru. Musíme detektovat hrozbu dříve, než riziko.

Počet vojáků na misi se musí zohlednit na počty obyvatel daného státu, například v NATO dáváme více vojáků než poskytují Spojené státy americké.

,,neexistují spřátelené informační služby”

Pokud podceníme stávající situaci, tak v budoucnu nebude žádný rozvoj, musíme řešit regionální konflikty tím, že tam budeme mít stálé zastoupení. Cíl teroristů je snadný a to napáchat co nejvíce škody. Pokud se podíváme na naše vnitřní hranice, což je letiště, tak s pistolí nebo bombou můžeme hladce projít až k přepážce a to je obrovská chyba a díky tomu je Česká republika velmi zranitelná. Musíme vnímat, zdali se teroristé už nepřipravují v Německu na Česko a pak ze Sýrie na Německo, neboť jsme u zrodu nové generace teroristů, kteří nesmí být podceněni.

Každý Albánec musí vracet 5% ze svých peněz do Albánie pokud je mimo svůj stát a my nevíme co Albánie dělá s těmito penězi. Armáda České republiky má 22 tisíc příslušníků (počítáme tam i logistiku), avšak skutečný počet armády České republiky je 14 tisíc vojáků – rozhodující úřad je úřad ministra vnitra a úřad ministra obrany.

,,vycvičení agenta trvá zhruba 8 let”

Jako jediný stát v NATO máme chemické jednotky v Liberci. Pokud se podíváme na rozpočet Polska, můžeme usoudit že Polsko je válečném stavu neboť 1/3 své ekonomiky vkládá na vývoj nové armády. Co to pro nás znamená? Pokud Polsko někdo napadne, tak je geograficky hned vedle našeho státu. Ale vidíme, že státy se přirozeně bojí, ukažme si příklad: Indonésie se bojí Austrálie a Nový Zéland zase Indonésie.

––

www.AdamKubina.com

Adam Kubina is a student of Diplomacy in Taipei, Independent Publisher & a member of the Diplomatic Academy in Prague, Czech Republic

––

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